This Program Could Still Be a Boondoggle

"SBA Thanks You For All The Fish" (santabarbarianlsx)
08/22/2020 at 23:51 • Filed to: None

But seeing the F-35 going about its business is pretty awesome. This guy takes great pics.

DISCUSSION (39)

JawzX2, Boost Addict. 1.6t, 2.7tt, 4.2t > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
08/23/2020 at 00:03

From what I can tell it's an acceptable airplane, one that's "good enough" at all it's assigned roles to be effective, of not a standout in them... But it cost too goddamn much and is a bit unreliable. We could have done better.

ttyymmnn > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
08/23/2020 at 00:09

Jack of all trades, master of none.

Great shots.

MUSASHI66 > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
08/23/2020 at 00:10

Too expensive, too unreliable, completely unnecessary, but I’d be damn if it doesn’t look like futuristic airplane porn.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > ttyymmnn
08/23/2020 at 00:13

I always say, “Gee it’s weird that it’s such an underperformer, yet the Israelis, the Japanese, the Brits, the Dutch... they all seem to want to buy as many as we can build... I wonder why that would be?”

I still feel like we’ve seen about 10% of what the platform is capable of. But, I’ve been wrong before.

The photographer’s got some nice video up Over There if you want to check it out. He clearly has great access. Even his Star Wars Canyon shots are incredible.

ttyymmnn > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
08/23/2020 at 00:28

A couple of years ago I had a long and fascinating conversation with an F-35 driver at an air show. We talked military history, strategy, Air Force d octrine, all of it. He was very high on the plane, as you might expect, but he talked about how the F-35 is really more of a systems management platform than a straight up fighter. That’s what the F-22 is for. The Air Force is very interested in young men and women who have grown up playing video games.

Kinja'd!!!

NKato > ttyymmnn
08/23/2020 at 00:32

There is also a DARPA program that’s about to pit a live fighter pilot in a simulation dogfight against an AI fighter. The results of this could determine the future of air superiority programs.

ttyymmnn > NKato
08/23/2020 at 00:36

The human pilot lost, but I’m not sure it was really a fair fight.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/35888/ai-claims-flawless-victory-going-undefeated-in-digital-dogfight-with-human-fighter-pilot

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > NKato
08/23/2020 at 00:39

I think it happened. The top AI platform won 5 out of 5.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > ttyymmnn
08/23/2020 at 00:45

Yes. This. I think the dissonance is that it’s “not really” a fighter and we haven’t yet fully internalized what air superiority means in this context. The one “battlefield command” specialist I talked to at Pax River mentioned their studies that, with the networking capability and the integration, three F-35s could basically oversee air superiority (with the right air assets of course) on thousands of square miles of terrain.

“They ran test after test. The team started to call them ‘ The Velociraptors’. Everything that tried to come off the ground to challenge them? Just died...” He was quoting some Marine general verbatim IIRC .

ttyymmnn > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
08/23/2020 at 00:47

This is the guy I talked to.

NKato > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
08/23/2020 at 01:00

https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2020/08/ai-just-beat-human-f-16-pilot-dogfight-again/167872/

I see. Well, if we are getting fully autonomous fighter jets in real life, that will be a problem especially if they have no human decision making in the process that determines when the weapons go hot and against whom.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > ttyymmnn
08/23/2020 at 01:00

Wow. Nice resume.

HammerheadFistpunch > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
08/23/2020 at 01:05

Seeing them flying around out here is pretty common. I still prefer vipers, but these are okay too.

HammerheadFistpunch > ttyymmnn
08/23/2020 at 01:07

one look at the F35 tells you it’ s not an Air Superiority fighter, but situational awareness is a pretty great weapon.

ttyymmnn > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
08/23/2020 at 01:07

I talked to the F-35 guy, and I started the conversation with, “Is this your plane? Do you like it?” I may have been the first person that day to ask a question other than, “How many bombs can it carry?” He was a very quiet, cerebral guy. Not what you would think of as a fighter jock. After I talked to him, I went to talk to the F-22 driver. He was the quintessential fighter pilot, right down to the mirrored sunglasses. He was cocky, arrogant, everything you might want in a fighter pilot. Interestingly, each pilot thought he could easily take the other in a fight. But as you say, it’s a very different sort of fight nowadays.

BoxerFanatic, troublesome iconoclast. > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
08/23/2020 at 01:08

Interesting... but it seems like these machines are becoming too complex for their own good... trying to do everything and anything with as much technology as possible... and then more technology to overcome the compromises that were made to try to do everything.

That seems to be the selling point for aircraft like JAS-39 Gripen and others that are arguably simpler, less stealthy, but more direct, and far less expensive to build, support, maintain, and fly, yet still quite effective at what it does, even if it isn’t as widely capable.

BoxerFanatic, troublesome iconoclast. > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
08/23/2020 at 01:08

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > HammerheadFistpunch
08/23/2020 at 01:19

I think this is the philosophy. If you get into a dogfight you’ve already lost your superiority. If they even know you’re up there, you’ve lost some of it.

I’m really, really curious about the networking capabilities these things have; it’s reputed to be a huge advance.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > ttyymmnn
08/23/2020 at 01:21

Funny that your F35 guy trained, flew and TAUGHT on the F22. He took the promotions and clearly thinks the F35 is an upgrade.

I always think it’s cool to see what the career guys have taken for duty assignments. Rome. Alaska. Eglin. Germany. Alaska again...

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > HammerheadFistpunch
08/23/2020 at 01:22

It’s quite a coup for Hill to get them, I’d think. I love that museum at the base, BTW. Have spent whole days in there.

For Sweden > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
08/23/2020 at 01:29

It’s the best airplane a trillion dollars can buy.

With some better program management, it could be the best plane four hundred million dollars can by.

Distraxi's idea of perfection is a Jagroen > ttyymmnn
08/23/2020 at 05:07

“ but I’m not sure it was really a fair fight”

Why do you say that?

RallyDarkstrike - Fan of 2-cyl FIATs, Eastern Bloc & Kei cars > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
08/23/2020 at 07:54

I dunno....i still think it’s already been a boondoggle....with the amount of money they’ve sunk into them and the fact that more and more problems keep cropping up and that they are notoriously unreliable.....

But they look damn cool though!

hillrat > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
08/23/2020 at 08:34

Interesting conversation that challenges what I think about the F-35 (overpriced, doesn’t do anything particularly well, and a sop to the big contractors) but I still can’t understand who is thing supposed to be fighting against? If we ever get the fuck out of Iraq and Afghanistan, where do we need to keep air superiority except for over the USA? Why is it so important to have this new toy?

I understand maintenance cycles and old airframes and the need to replace them. Cool , but how come when I’m trying to get something done for the government they want an MVP (minimally viable product, the bare minimum) but when these douche nozzles want a new plane its gotta have 2 flux capacitors and runs on unicorn piss ?

facw > MUSASHI66
08/23/2020 at 08:50

The first two points might be true, but to me it seems quite necessary (unless you want to argue that the US shouldn’t have the ability to fight wars against near-peers). If nothing else, the stealth aspects seem pretty crucial to survival in a fight against someone else with modern tech. Our 4th- gen fighters would be in serious trouble if they ever had to operate against someone with modern air defenses.

facw > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
08/23/2020 at 08:53

The program has been an absolute mess, we probably should have forced Lockheed into something better or cancelled it years ago (though cancelling the F-35 probably would have just meant restarting the F-22, so Lockheed wins either way! )

It does seem like we are finally getting a decent plane though, albeit with massively higher per-plane and development costs than were originally envisioned.

Merkin Muffley > hillrat
08/23/2020 at 10:18

Keep in mind that our "front line" F15 is a 50 year old design. We got by without much upgrades for many decades

ttyymmnn > Distraxi's idea of perfection is a Jagroen
08/23/2020 at 10:50

I will admit that I haven’t followed this very closely. The War Zone has a good piece on this, and the comments are generally quite interesting.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/35888/ai-claims-flawless-victory-going-undefeated-in-digital-dogfight-with-human-fighter-pilot

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > facw
08/23/2020 at 11:00

Well, I keep asking myself “if it’s such a dog, why do the Brits and Israelis keep buying them?”

In point of fact, the Brits seem thrilled with the carrier performance of the “B”-- it being a huge upgrade over the Harriers.

VincentMalamute-Kim > hillrat
08/23/2020 at 11:33

“ how come when I’m trying to get something done for the government they want an MVP”

You apparently don’t have hundreds of lobbyists with millions of dollars to throw at Congress.

“where do we need to keep air superiority except for over the USA?”

If China has any say, we’re going to need air superiority over the western Pacific.

MUSASHI66 > facw
08/23/2020 at 12:41

In order for #3 to be valid, you have to be able to produce a lot and you have to have a lot of them flying. With the price tag and reliability, #3 doesn’t matter.

We already have stealth bombers that can do targeted air to ground missions, destroy defense, and they you can let whatever you want to swoop in once air superiority has been established.

F35 was a well funded project where someone got a shit ton of money to push it through as a need. You know, like the senators asking billions to produce more tanks because of kickbacks and contract requirements, only to have them mothballed right away.

facw > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
08/23/2020 at 16:57

The B is really a game changer. The Harrier is basically a STOVL A-4 in capabilities while the F-35B isn’t anywhere near as hobbled when compared to its conventional brethren.

facw > MUSASHI66
08/23/2020 at 17:02

We have 20 stealth bombers. Definitely not enough for all the targets we’d want to strike on the first day of a war. We have well over ten times that many F-35s. Lock heed is currently down to around 10 a month due to COVID, but expects to pump that up as supply chains resume functioning smoothly.

hillrat > VincentMalamute-Kim
08/23/2020 at 20:53

What happens if we concede air superiority over the western Pacific to China? Can our commercial airlines no longer fly in peace? Are supply routes to allies compromised? I’m seriously asking, is this actually a big deal that would change the geo political balance of power or is it a sca re quote?

VincentMalamute-Kim > hillrat
08/23/2020 at 22:14

We may not have a choice in the matter. If/when China actually has equivalent hardware (currently their hardware just looks very pretty, prettier than the F-35 ), it’s going to be difficult for us to fight battles thousands of miles away vs hundreds of miles for China. Even f rom our bases in Japan/Aus.

Supply routes to allies - yeah, China will be able to kill those easily (when they have equiv equipment) because it’s in their backyard.

Airliners/commerce - anything that keeps China Inc going will be safe.

Back to if we have any choice in the matter. We may not. We knew China was building the islands in the Spratly chain for military bases for the past 20 years. We couldn’t do anything about it back then or now .

It really will be a huge shift in geopolitical power balance. Not same scale but kinda like when Russia controlled all of eastern Europe. Conceding the western Pacific to China means the SE Asian nations will have to play nice with China, do what China wants which may not be in our interests.

Military and economic power are entertwined but if you don’t have military power in the neighborhood, no one’s paying what you say much mind. Ramifications are extensive. It really isn’t a scare quote.

sn4cktimes > ttyymmnn
08/24/2020 at 00:41

Basically my career motto as a Millwright. Except you must appear to be master at whatever you are currently doing...

hillrat > VincentMalamute-Kim
08/24/2020 at 07:16

Great answer, thanks indulging me.

When you say that SE Asian nations will have to “play nice with China” you say that as if they don’t do that now. Hell, the United States plays nice with China. The issue IMHO is will the balance of power shift enough that those nations will prize China’s priorities over ours? I’m just not sure why the $1.5 TRILLION we’re going to dump into this isn’t better spent on diplomacy and humanitarian aid.

VincentMalamute-Kim > hillrat
08/24/2020 at 11:08

Good point about diplomacy and humanitarian aid. I’d argue that we need to do all of it humanitarian aid, diplomacy, and F-35's. Can we afford that? That’s where economic power is inextricably linked to military power. At some point the US is going to have to recognize a new balance of power. Hopefully decades in the future. As you say that we can’t afford this stuff, at some point , I don’t think the US economy will be able to compete. And therefore our military won’t be able to .

China is already doing all three of what you suggest - you’ve heard of the China’s Road and Belt initiative? They’re spending many more trillions than the F-35 program on that. Chinese diplomats are crawling all over the African countries. They’re spending billions on building carriers, 5th gen fighters . Etc.

‘Play nice with China’ - you’re right, we already do. The NBA. Hollywood erasing certain scenes that may offend China. The US and the rest of the world not recognizing Taiwan.

There’s currently still a limit to how far that goes - Vietnam, Phillippines, still send out their navy to challenge Chinese fishing boats in the S. China Sea. They still won’t recognize that as Chinese territorial waters. If the US can’t freely send destroyers and carriers through, then everyone will have to accede to China in that region.

TL;DR China agrees with your point . Spend trillions on diplomacy, aid, and military hardware .

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > facw
08/24/2020 at 20:05

excep the f22 though wanted by Japan, was never be allowed for export. And the f35 was to be the Huricane to the f22 spit.